Think of Japan in the spring, and the image that comes to mind is likely the country’s famous cherry blossoms, also known as “sakura” — white and pink flowers, bursting across cities and mountains, petals covering the ground. The flowers, which experience a “peak bloom” that only lasts a few days, have been revered in Japan for more than a thousand years. Crowds celebrate with viewing parties, flocking to the most popular locations to take photos and have picnics underneath the branches. But this year, cherry blossom season has come and gone in the blink of an eye, in one of the earliest blooms on record — and scientists warn it’s a symptom of the larger climate crisis threatening ecosystems everywhere.  Yasuyuki Aono, a researcher at Osaka Prefecture University, has gathered records from Kyoto back to 812 AD from historical documents and diaries. In the central city of Kyoto, cherry blossoms peaked on March 26, the earliest in more than 1,200 years, Aono said. And in the capital Tokyo, cherry blossoms reached full bloom on March 22, the second-earliest date on record. “As global temperatures warm, the last spring frosts are occurring earlier and flowering is occurring sooner,” said Dr. Lewis Ziska from Columbia Universities Environmental Health Sciences. The peak bloom dates shift every year, depending on numerous factors including weather and rainfall, but have shown a general trend of moving earlier and earlier. In Kyoto, the peak date hovered around mid-April for centuries, according to Aono’s data, but began moving into early April during the 1800s. The date has only dipped into late March a handful of times in recorded history.  “Sakura blooms are very temperature sensitive,” said Aono. “Flowering and full bloom could be earlier or later depending on the temperature alone,” he said. “The temperature was low in the 1820s, but it has risen by about 3.5 degrees Celsius (6.3 degrees Fahrenheit) to this day.” This year’s seasons in particular influenced the blossom dates, he added. The winter was very cold, but the spring came fast and unusually warm, so “the buds are completely awake after enough rest.” Their early bloom, however, is just the tip of the iceberg of a worldwide phenomenon that could destabilize natural systems and countries’ economies, said Amos Tai, assistant professor of earth science at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. There are two sources of increased heat, which is the main factor making the flowers bloom earlier: urbanization and climate change. With increased urbanization, cities tend to get warmer than the surrounding rural area, in what is called the heat island effect. But a bigger reason is climate change, which has caused rising temperatures across the region and the world. And these earlier dates aren’t just a matter of tourists scrambling to catch peak bloom before the petals all fall — it could have a lasting impact on entire ecosystems, and threaten the survival of many species. For every action there is a reaction  Plants and insects rely heavily on each other, and both use environmental cues to “regulate the timing of different stages of their life cycles,” said Tai. For instance, plants sense the temperature around them and if it’s warm enough for a consistent period, they start to flower and their leaves start to emerge. Similarly, insects and other animals depend on temperature for their life cycles, meaning higher heat can cause faster growth. “The relationship between plants and insects and other organisms have developed over many years — thousands to millions of years,” said Tai. “But in the recent century, climate change is really wrecking everything and perturbing all of these relationships.” Different plants and insects may respond to the rise in heat at different paces, throwing their life cycles out of sync. Whereas they once timed their growth simultaneously each spring, now flowers may bloom before insects are ready, and vice versa — meaning “the insects may not find enough food to eat from the plants, and the plants don’t have enough pollinators (to reproduce),” he said. Over the past decade, some plant and animal populations have already begun shifting to both “higher altitudes” and “higher latitudes” to escape the effects of climate change, according to a 2009 study in Biological Conservation. But it’s becoming harder for ecosystems to adapt, with climate change making the weather more and more unpredictable. Though the trend of flowering dates is generally moving earlier, unexpected and extreme weather means that there is still huge variability year-by-year. “Ecosystems are not accustomed to these kinds of large fluctuations, it causes them a lot of stress,” said Tai. “Productivity may be reduced, and ecosystems may even collapse in the future.”  Not limited to cherry blossoms  This year’s change in flowering dates isn’t limited to just Japan; the cherry blossoms that adorn the Tidal Basin in Washington, DC, have also bloomed early. According to the National Park Service, the peak bloom date of the Washington cherry blossoms has advanced forward by nearly a week from April 5th to March 31. And the effects of climate change aren’t just limited to cherry blossoms.”Cherry blossoms catch the eye, people love to go see them, but lots of other plants are experiencing changes in their life cycle as well, and may have even stronger influence on the stability of their ecosystems,” said Tai. The same phenomenon is already happening to many crops and economically valuable plants, he said — posing big problems for food security and farmers’ livelihoods. Food supplies in some of the most vulnerable regions in the world are being directly affected by droughts, crop failures and locust swarms. In some regions, farmers may be forced to change the types of crops they grow. Some climates will become too hot for what they are growing now, while other climates will see more flooding, more snow, more moisture in the air, which will also limit what can be grown. “(Farmers) have a much harder time predicting when they will have a good year, when they will have a bad year,” Tai added. “Agriculture now is more like a gamble, because climate change is randomizing the things happening in our ecological systems.” https://whdh.com/news/japan-records-earliest-cherry-blossom-bloom-in-1200-years-scientists-warn-its-a-symptom-of-larger-climate-crisis/

The World Bank has predicted that the six countries of the Western Balkans could grow by 4.4% this year following a contraction of 4.8% during 2020. This projection depends on how vaccines are rolled out in the region, and how each state manages to deal with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In a macroeconomic report published this week, the WB said that Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Serbia show signs of promise in terms of recovering economies. But despite this, the WB noted that the per capita income will remain below pre-pandemic levels. Just how much economies survive will be defined largely by the way that their respective governments respond. “The significant role that government plays underscore the importance of the quality of governance in determining productivity and growth and effectively responding to the region’s economic and social challenges.” Issues such as the aging population, rising inequality, and increasing government expenditures need to be managed and governed effectively, WB said. Albania will likely continue to grapple with international travel restrictions which is concerning as much of its economy depends on it.  “The pandemic hit Albania’s key sectors of tourism and manufacturing through the recession in the EU, supply chain disruptions, travel limitations and social distancing measures.” The report said that if the country accelerates structural reforms in preparation for EU membership, various sectors could be boosted. The WB aid that Albania’s productivity has now stagnated below peer countries and issues including wage pressures could further reduce its competitiveness.  SMEs represent most of the country’s businesses and they rely heavily on unskilled and low-wage labor. Foreign and private investment is rarer due to “limited access to finance, burdensome logistic and poor market investment”. Other issues include scarce public revenues that limit public infrastructure and human capital investment. The country’s GDP is expected to have declined by 4.7% during 2020 although this is smaller than first projected. This is due to an increase in local and domestic tourism which partially compensated for foreign arrivals. Some government measures such as reconstruction and those designed to mitigate the pandemic have had:’significant fiscal cost.” A recently introduced tax incentive has placed further stress on already declining revenues, the report said. The report also found that the loss of jobs has been relatively small, but that the quality of jobs has likely decreased. Overall, Albania is forecast to grow 4.4% in 2021 due to rebounds in demand for exports, consumption, and investments. Tourism and construction are likely to be big drivers of this. POverty is predicted to decline by two percentage points. The main concerns of the WB relate to government spending and the fiscal situation. “ The fiscal situation could deteriorate in a downside growth scenario and the absence of expanded revenue collection. In this case, the government may need to further reduce capital spending to keep the debt to GDP ratio from rising.” They estimate that public debt will amount to 79.5% of the GDP in 2021. https://exit.al/en/2021/04/01/world-bank-western-balkans-economies-could-grow-by-4-4-in-2021/

Prime Minister Edi Rama promised to complete the vaccination of hotel employees and service workers before the start of the summer tourist season. “As soon as the first phase of vaccination of the elderly is over, we will start vaccinating the employees in the tailoring and at the same time vaccinating hotel employees, especially where there is a large number of people. In June, everyone will be vaccinated “, said Rama, in a meeting with the tour operators in Robit Mountain, in Kavaja, on April 1. He stressed that last season was good, thanks to the government’s decision to leave the border with Kosovo and Northern Macedonia open: “We succeeded because we left open the border with Kosovo and Northern Macedonia. The season was dominated by Albanian tourists. The World Bank said that Albania’s economic recovery hinges on the rollout of vaccines, management of the pandemic, and how quickly the tourism season can recover. https://exit.al/en/2021/04/01/tourism-workers-to-be-vaccinated-as-priority-group/